Uncover Bitcoin's hidden rebound signal: Stablecoin Supply Ratio plunges to 2025 lows, echoing past bull surges. Dive into on-chain metrics revealing seller exhaustion and liquidity buildup.
As Bitcoin grapples with volatility in early November 2025, key on-chain indicators are pointing toward a potential market bottom.
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), a crucial metric gauging sidelined capital in stablecoins relative to Bitcoin's valuation, has plummeted to historic lows around 13-14.
With Bitcoin recovering to approximately $103,649 after dipping below $101,000 amid market fears, this SSR decline suggests a buildup of buying power that could ignite a rebound, mirroring patterns seen earlier in the 2025 bull cycle.
Analysts from CryptoQuant and prominent voices on X, such as Crypto Rover, emphasize that these levels have previously heralded 20-50% price surges, fueled by shifting liquidity from stablecoins back into risk assets like BTC.
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) is an on-chain metric calculated by dividing Bitcoin's market capitalization by the total market capitalization of major stablecoins, including USDT, USDC, DAI, and others.
This ratio serves as a barometer for potential buying power in the crypto ecosystem.
When SSR falls to low levels, it indicates that stablecoin supplies have grown disproportionately to Bitcoin's value, often during price corrections, creating a reservoir of capital that can flow back into BTC and drive recoveries.
Historically, SSR has proven reliable in spotting market bottoms. For instance, in past bull cycles like 2021, SSR dips below 15 correlated with significant rebounds as investors deployed stablecoin holdings. In the current 2025 cycle, similar lows have marked turning points, with data from CryptoQuant charts showing SSR entering "bottom zones" around 13, often followed by price upswings.
Visualizations from analysts like Crypto Rover illustrate this trend, where SSR's decline aligns with Bitcoin's price stabilizing after sell-offs, underscoring its role as a liquidity turning point.
As of November 9, 2025, the SSR has fallen to approximately 13-14, amid Bitcoin's recent correction where it briefly fell under $101,000 before rebounding to $103,649.
This level mirrors readings from April 2025 (around 13.8) and July 2025 (near 14.5), both of which preceded substantial rallies of 25-40% as capital rotated from stablecoins.
Key drivers include the explosive growth in stablecoin supplies, now totaling $310 billion across all listed assets, with Tether (USDT) dominating at $183 billion and Circle's USDC at $75 billion. Bitcoin's market cap stands at $2.066 trillion, creating the low SSR ratio.
Recent X discussions, including posts from Crypto Rover and On-Chain Mind, describe this as a "bullish beacon" and "lowest level since COVID," highlighting liquidity poised for deployment.
Complementing the SSR signal, several on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin is approaching capitulation and undervaluation:
Additional factors, such as ETF outflows and extreme fear sentiment (Fear & Greed Index at historic lows), further support a potential pivot, though exchange inflows remain a watchpoint.
In a bullish scenario, renewed stablecoin inflows could propel Bitcoin toward new highs, potentially surpassing its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080, especially if Federal Reserve rate cuts (with 67% odds for December) materialize. This liquidity shift might also boost altcoin dominance and Ethereum-related trends like staking.
However, risks loom: Slowing stablecoin issuance, persistent macro uncertainties, or further leverage unwinds could extend the correction to $95,000 support levels.
Broader crypto liquidity, including rising exchange stablecoin reserves to $73 billion, could mitigate this if inflows accelerate.
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio's plunge to historic lows in November 2025 paints a compelling picture of Bitcoin nearing a cycle bottom, akin to earlier recoveries in this bull market.
Backed by corroborating on-chain data, this signal highlights stablecoins' growing influence in crypto dynamics. Yet, confirmation hinges on positive triggers like ETF inflows and favorable macro conditions.
Investors eyeing Bitcoin's rebound should stay vigilant, as this could mark the prelude to the bull cycle's final push.
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SSR is Bitcoin's market cap divided by major stablecoins' market cap; lows like 13-14 signal high buying power, as seen in 2025 rebounds when capital flows from stablecoins to BTC.
With SSR at 13-14 alongside metrics like aSOPR ~1.0 and supply in loss at 30-33%, evidence suggests yes, echoing April/July recoveries, though macro confirmation is key.
SSR dips below 15 have historically triggered 20-50% rallies, serving as a liquidity indicator for sidelined stablecoin capital entering the market.
Factors like delayed rate cuts, continued ETF outflows, or decelerating stablecoin growth might push prices to $95,000, overriding the bullish on-chain setup.
Expansion to $310 billion+ outpacing Bitcoin during dips lowers SSR, indicating potential capital inflows and sustaining bull market momentum.
