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Stablecoins are on track to become the dominant global payments rail within the next decade, according to new research from blockchain data firm Chainalysis, which projects that stablecoin transaction volumes could surpass Visa and Mastercard combined between 2031 and 2039. The forecast, published May 2 and covered by both Motley Fool and Yahoo Finance, puts the scale of that shift into stark numbers: adjusted stablecoin volumes could grow from $28 trillion in 2025 to as much as $1.5 quadrillion by 2035. If those projections hold, the world's financial plumbing is about to be rewired.
Key Takeaways
- Chainalysis projects stablecoin volumes could reach $1.5 quadrillion by 2035.
- Stablecoins could overtake Visa and Mastercard combined between 2031 and 2039.
- Ethereum, Circle, Visa, and Mastercard are among the key investment plays identified.
What the Chainalysis Research Says
The Chainalysis report maps out multiple growth scenarios for stablecoin adoption over the next decade. Its base case projects adjusted stablecoin transaction volume reaching $719 trillion by 2035. Its highest-growth scenario puts the figure at $1.5 quadrillion, representing a more than 5,000% increase from the $28 trillion recorded in 2025.
Importantly, Chainalysis uses adjusted stablecoin volume in its analysis, which filters out bot activity and automated transactions to focus on genuine economic activity such as payments and money transfers. This distinction matters because raw on-chain stablecoin volume is significantly inflated by non-economic activity, and the adjusted figure is a more credible basis for comparison with Visa and Mastercard's transaction data.
The forecast is built on three drivers: the pace of stablecoin growth in recent years, the anticipated effect of a wealth transfer to crypto-native generations, and growing merchant acceptance of stablecoins as a payment method. It is also worth noting, as the Motley Fool analysis points out, that soaring stablecoin usage is in Chainalysis' commercial interest, since the company sells compliance monitoring and blockchain analytics services. Readers should weigh the projections accordingly.
Why Stablecoins Threaten Legacy Card Networks
The structural argument for stablecoins displacing card networks rests on two advantages that are difficult for Visa and Mastercard to replicate: lower transaction costs and faster settlement.
According to research from The Motley Fool, a standard debit or credit card transaction can take days to fully settle, with settlement being the point at which the transaction is finalized and the seller receives funds. Blockchain networks can complete the same process in minutes. For high-volume merchants and cross-border transactions in particular, that speed difference has real economic value.
The cost gap is even more pronounced in international transfers. Global money transfers currently average a cost of 6.5% of the amount sent. Stablecoins can move the same value across borders for a fraction of that cost, which is why cross-border payments and remittances have become the most clearly established stablecoin use case to date.
If stablecoins achieve broad merchant acceptance, the Motley Fool article argues the shift would be comparable in magnitude to the transition from cash to credit cards, a change that took decades but ultimately restructured global commerce entirely.
What This Means for Investors
The Motley Fool analysis identifies three categories of investment exposure to stablecoin growth.
The first is Ethereum. With Ethereum accounting for more than half of all stablecoins in circulation, any sustained increase in stablecoin usage translates directly into higher network activity, more transaction fees, and potential upward pressure on ETH's price over time.
The second is Circle Internet Group, the issuer of USDC and a publicly traded company on NYSE American under the ticker CRCL. Circle earns yield on the cash and U.S. Treasury reserves backing the USDC it issues. The more USDC in circulation, the larger those interest-generating reserves become. CRCL shares were up nearly 10% on May 2.
The third category is the legacy networks themselves. Both Visa and Mastercard are already running stablecoin settlement pilots and investing in blockchain infrastructure, positioning themselves to participate in the stablecoin economy rather than be displaced by it.
Conclusion
The Chainalysis forecast places a number on what the stablecoin industry has long argued: that blockchain-based dollar transfers will eventually become the default rails for global commerce, not a niche alternative to them. A $1.5 quadrillion projection by 2035 is an extreme scenario, and the base case of $719 trillion is still an extraordinary figure by any historical measure.
What is less debatable is the direction of travel. With the GENIUS Act now creating a federal regulatory framework in the United States and enterprise adoption accelerating, the structural conditions for a shift of this scale are more credible in May 2026 than they have ever been before.
FAQs:
What is the Chainalysis stablecoin volume forecast for 2035?
The Chainalysis stablecoin volume forecast for 2035 projects that adjusted stablecoin transaction volumes could grow from $28 trillion in 2025 to between $719 trillion and $1.5 quadrillion by 2035, representing a potential increase of more than 5,000% in the highest-growth scenario.
What is the difference between raw stablecoin transaction volume and adjusted stablecoin transaction volume?
The difference between raw stablecoin transaction volume and adjusted stablecoin transaction volume is that raw volume includes all on-chain activity including bot transactions and automated flows, while adjusted volume filters those out to count only genuine economic transactions such as payments, money transfers, and commerce, producing a more accurate basis for comparison with traditional payment networks like Visa and Mastercard.
When could stablecoin transaction volumes overtake Visa and Mastercard?
Stablecoin transaction volumes could overtake Visa and Mastercard combined between 2031 and 2039, according to Chainalysis projections published in May 2026, with the exact timing depending on which growth scenario materializes based on merchant adoption rates and regulatory developments.
What is the difference between stablecoin settlement and credit card settlement?
The difference between stablecoin settlement and credit card settlement is that stablecoin transactions settle on a blockchain in minutes, while credit and debit card transactions can take several days to fully settle, a speed gap that becomes economically significant at high transaction volumes and across international borders.
Why are global money transfers expensive and how do stablecoins reduce that cost?
Global money transfers are expensive because the current correspondent banking system involves multiple intermediaries each taking a fee, producing an average cost of 6.5% of the transfer amount, while stablecoins reduce that cost by moving value directly between parties on a blockchain without the need for multiple intermediary banks in the settlement chain.
What is Circle Internet Group and why is it relevant to stablecoin growth?
Circle Internet Group is the issuer of USDC, a dollar-pegged stablecoin, and is publicly traded on NYSE American under the ticker CRCL. It is relevant to stablecoin growth because Circle earns yield on the cash and U.S. Treasury reserves it holds to back USDC in circulation, meaning its revenue scales directly with the amount of USDC being used, making it one of the most direct public market exposures to stablecoin adoption.
